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European leaders are stepping up shuttle diplomacy this week as they brace for their central banker’s plan to defend the euro from bond-market turmoil. European Union President Herman Van Rompuy is traveling to Berlin for talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel today as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti welcomes French President Francois Hollande to Rome. They were all given a hint about what may be in store when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told officials yesterday he would be comfortable buying three-year government bonds to bring down borrowing costs for nations in financial distress.
Germany reiterated its support yesterday for Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann yesterday, following reports last week that he had considered resigning over his opposition to ECB bond purchases. Schaeuble warned investors not to expect too much from the ECB plan. Schaeuble told Deutschlandfunk radio yesterday, “We have to be very careful that we don’t raise false expectations. It has to remain very clear, state debt can’t be financed through monetary policy. Therefore we can’t have a decision --we would think it very wrong -- that’s not covered by the ECB mandate.”
Oil (WTI): Oil climbed to the highest intraday price in more than a week on speculation central banks will take more steps to boost economic growth. The commodity was trading at 97.150 at the time of writing after disappointing Chinese manufacturing data sparked talk Beijing will loosen monetary policy to spark more robust growth. Market sentiments remain bullish on oil as Draghi may unveil details of his bond-purchase program when he holds his first press conference after the summer break on Sept. 6 and the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting on Sept. 11-12.
Many investors in global energy markets continue to believe the U.S. central bank will announce a third round of bond buying. Monetary stimulus tools tend to weaken the dollar by design, pushing down interest rates and sending commodities prices rising, especially oil. Today, investors will closely watch the economic data which will be released in the Eurozone and the U.S as well as headlines from European leaders meetings as European Union President Herman Van Rompuy is traveling to Berlin for talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel today as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti welcomes French President Francois Hollande to Rome. The resistance level is at 98.319 and the support level is at 96.041.
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The Eurozone is facing a lot of problems coming from Spain, Greece and some leaders quoting divergences in opinion. The debt costs in Spain have risen around 31 bps to break above the 6.0% level and close the day at 6.08% for the 10Y bonds, as a second night of violent protests loomed amid sparring over the police response to clashes in Madrid. Protesters started gathering in Madrid for a second day while workers staged a general strike in Athens to protest austerity measures at ground zero of Europe’s financial crisis. Police fired tear gas near the Greek Parliament after demonstrators threw fire bombs. Rajoy’s efforts to restore investor confidence suffered a new setback yesterday when Catalan President Artur Mas called early elections to push for “self-determination” for the country’s largest region. His gambit added a new front to Rajoy’s battles to push the deepest budget cuts on record with unemployment at 25 percent and the economy in recession.
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD was trading slightly higher at 1.28876 at the time of writing after new home sales data in the U.S. came below expectations. However, market sentiments remain fragile on the Euro as protests against European austerity measures added to obstacles for leaders seeking to stem the region’s debt crisis. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may submit a fifth package of budget cuts and protestors gathered near parliament in Madrid yesterday, while Greek police in Athens dispersed protesters with tear gas.
Moreover, Spanish bonds dropped yesterday, sending the yield on 10- year securities above 6 percent for the first time since Sept. 18. Catalan President Artur Mas called early elections for Nov. 25, as Rajoy struggles to gain acceptance for austerity measures and faces criticism from European leaders for delaying a decision on a bailout to support the nation’s bond market. Investors should be very cautious when dealing with the Euro. Other events that investors should closely monitor today are; German Unemployment Rate and Italian 10-Year BTP Auction in the European session. Later in the day, the U.S will release its GDP (QoQ), Initial Jobless Claims and Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM), the key risk events for the USD. Orders for U.S. durable goods probably plunged in August and the U.S. might also be suffering from a slowdown in business investment according to economists.
A report today may show the number 375,000 people filed claims for jobless benefits last week, little changed from 382,000 in the previous period, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed. On the other hand, an index of consumer confidence in the euro area probably dropped to minus 25.9 this month, the lowest since May 2009, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Investors should wait for news and data to come on market to better assess the movement of the pair. The resistance level is at 1.29336 and the support level is 1.28354.